Model: resulting - decision quality vs decision outcome

June 30th, 2022

decision quality != decision outcome

resulting happens when you mix those two

 

Is driving a good or bad decision?

  1. You're drunk, you drive, you have an accident -> bad

  2. You're drunk, you drive, you get home safely -> good

  3. You're sober, you drive, you have an accident -> bad

  4. You're sober, you drive, you get home safely -> good

If you answered bad / good as above, you were resulting.

You conflated decision outcome with decision quality

 

Deciding to drive when you're drunk is a bad decision, regardless of the outcome.

The outcome of a situation does not impact the decision quality.

 

Why is this important?

Because you want to learn from good/bad decisions.

But you don't want to let the outcomes misdirect your learning!

 

Just because you were lucky you don't want that behaviour to be reinforced.

 

(src: Book: thinking in Bets - Annie Duke)

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