decision quality != decision outcome resulting happens when you mix those two

Is driving a good or bad decision?

  1. You’re drunk, you drive, you have an accident -> bad
  2. You’re drunk, you drive, you get home safely -> good
  3. You’re sober, you drive, you have an accident -> bad
  4. You’re sober, you drive, you get home safely -> good

If you answered bad / good as above, you were resulting. You conflated decision outcome with decision quality

Deciding to drive when you’re drunk is a bad decision, regardless of the outcome. The outcome of a situation does not impact the decision quality.

Why is this important? Because you want to learn from good/bad decisions. But you don’t want to let the outcomes misdirect your learning!

Just because you were lucky you don’t want that behaviour to be reinforced.

(src: Book: thinking in Bets - Annie Duke)