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Model: 3x for estimates “No estimates” idea is great or bad depending on which phase you’re in explore: estimates are waste -> great idea in exploration, because you’ve never done it before -> estimate is just a guess, no value, wasted effor expand: (not mentioned in talk) extraction: -> estimates are important data for making decisions -> do I do project A or project B -> estimates are useful input for ROI...
(src: Course_ ADSD - Fallacies of Distributed Computing) role: Business Analist role: Architect role: Project Manager Estimates Given a - well-formed team (worked together) - with required skills (has done such things before) - of size S I like how estimates formulated this way, drive Proof-of-Concepts with the sole focus of getting better estimates. This then lowers risk & variability by shifting that to the beginning of the project....
Lens: Estimates Focusing - not possible Delivering - possible / easy Optimising - not valuable At Focusing (zone 1) there is not enough stability in the system to make estimates. Hidden technical debt can pop up when working, delaying otherwise simple things. At Delivering (zone 2) there is wel maintained code. Little or no hidden bugs or nasty surprises. Previous work is representative of future. So it’s possible to do pretty accurate estimations....
In Model_ 3 stages of relational dependence there are 3 stages of dependency. Dependent Independent Interdependent The first stage and the third are often confused It’s even said that people going from independent to Interdependent “fear they’re going backwards”. While this is only natural progression. Model_ Agile Fluency with relation to estimates Lvl1 estimates not possible Lvl2 estimates possible / easy Lvl3 estimates not valuable, just work on the next most valuable thing (team knows what that is, because they have the market knowledge) At fluency 1 there is not enough stability in the system to make estimates....
ROI - cost estimates don’t matter prioritize based on cost of delay “how much would we have earned if this was in production” We’re more wrong than not in guessing which features will be valuable (90% wrong in uncertain/new markets, xx>50% in well known markets) So what do we do? (src: Video_ Why Scaling Agile Doesn’t Work - Jez Humble)